For the last decade, talk of democracy in crisis has become pervasive, with all well-known democratic indices registering year on year declines. While the decline is real, it is difficult to pin down a specific cause. Theories have centered on the rise of populist leaders, shifting identity politics, and economic imbalances, among other factors. But three overarching exogenous crises have come to dominate the narrative: the climate crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic and its socio-economic spill-over, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These once-in-a-generation phenomena are interacting in ways that can have either negative or positive effects on democracy.

Even so, democracy remains a powerful force in the world. In the short term, it is bolstered by citizen movements that are mobilizing to confront climate change and reclaim their local communities from the clutches of fossil fuel companies. The same is true of civil society activists fighting back against state surveillance and repression. Democracy is also being defended by the courts, which have emerged as a potent source of checks and balances.

Nevertheless, the long-term trends are troubling. The global retreat of democracy is not only a setback for fundamental freedoms, but also poses security and economic risks. It is fostering an environment that makes it easier for extremists to operate, undermines international law and global governance, and contributes to growing polarization between countries and within them. Moreover, the spread of antidemocratic practices—from politicized courts to intolerance for dissent and predetermined elections—is no coincidence. It is the logical outcome of a neoliberal system that has always been prone to political crises and inimical to democracy.